The current birth rate for Canada in 2022 is 10.148 births per 1000 people. This represents a 0.74% decline from 2021. In 2021 the decline was the same compared to 2020, and in 2020 it was 0.73% compared to 2019. The Canadian fertility rate was 1.4 per child-bearing female in 2020.
In Lithuania the birth rate fell by 17 per cent 2021, compared to 2019, and 9 per cent from 2020. This rate translates to an average of 1.34 per child-bearing female, which demographic specialists like Vytautas Magnus University Demographic Research head Dr. Aušra Maslauskaitė, consider “rock bottom”. The number of child-bearing women has fallen from 900,000 in 2004 to 580,000 last year. About 57,000 Lithuanian babies were born in 1990, as shown by numbers entering the school system and the work force about 20 years later.
In 2021 there were about 23,000 newborns.
Dr. Maslauskaitė notes that birth rates are affected by many factors, both short- and long-term.
For example, it has been proven that external events such as the COVID-19 pandemic or extreme heat waves can cause short-term shock which lowers the birth rate for 3 to 5 years.
Other factors can be economic, such as housing shortages, which would cause young couples to delay starting a family or decide not to have children. The tendency to remain childless is growing in other countries as well.
Dr. D. Jasilionis maintains that the decrease in the number of child-bearing women, resulting in an average birth-rate (1.34) shows the demographic potential of a country, as the mortality rate is much higher than the birth rate. Population size, trends in age levels, and family values are some of the factors influencing child-bearing decisions, but are long-term, and take decades to change. Incentives such as compensation are effective in the short term.
A birth rate of 2.1 children per female would signal stable demographic development, ensuring generational replacement. Best practices show that focusing on balance between work and child-rearing as well as on excellent pre-school care networks determines high average birth rates, for example in Sweden and France.
According to Lithuanian experts, improvement in the quality of life would result in higher birth rates. Greater social equality and lower emigration rates would definitely improve the demographic potential in Lithuania. Will Lithuania survive? Yes, says Dr. Jasilionis, but closer attention must be paid to current trends, remembering that changes take many years to take effect.
