According to Lithuanian Defence Minister Arvydas Anušauskas, the number of Wagner mercenaries in Belarus is decreasing. “They are splitting up, moving to other territories, someone is going on ‘holiday’ to Russia, they are being recruited by other military companies,” Anušauskas stated on September 6.
In early August, Lithuania and Poland said that there were about 4,000 Wagner mercenaries in Belarus, some of them close to the border, having moved to Belarus after a failed mutiny in Russia. President Gitanas Nausėda said that the issue of completely closing Lithuania’s border with Belarus is losing relevance. At his meeting with Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, Nausėda called on the region’s countries to set out criteria and define threats that would warrant a full closure of their borders with Belarus. The interior ministers of Lithuania, Latvia and Poland agreed on such criteria later in the month.
Nausėda says now that the security situation has not worsened since then and that there are signs of disarray among Wagner troops following the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the group’s leader. “Today, I have no concrete information suggesting that the Wagner group’s members are close to our borders or are trying to destabilie the border situation,” he told LRT TV on September 4.
Nevertheless, with about 60,000 Belarusian citizens currently residing in Lithuania, Nausėda said that they should be subject to closer scrutiny. “I think we have to be much more interested in what role or what goals drive people from Belarus who come to Lithuania,” the president said. “I’m not throwing any shadow on Belarusian people here; I’m just saying that the Belarusian regime has its own goals and is quite skilled at using people as instruments,” he added.
Immigration from Belarus to Lithuania increased after the 2020 presidential election, which saw the long-time authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko declared the winner. According to Nausėda, some of those arriving in Lithuania may not necessarily cooperate with Belarusian intelligence, but they could be trying to circumvent sanctions and continue doing business.
The president also said that their relatives back in Belarus may face threats and pressure, which could make Belarusians in Lithuania vulnerable.
“So we have to keep all this in mind and not bring the discussion down to a purely economic level where we need cheaper labour,” he said. “We always have to think not only about the economy, but also about our national security.” However, Nausėda emphasized that Lithuania must keep the humanitarian corridor open for those fleeing the Lukashenko regime. The president is among those advocating for applying the same national restrictions to Russian and Belarusian citizens.
