Recent headlines on social media and news sources have been highlighting the preparation of shelters, issues of conscription and other worrisome topics both in Lithuanian and abroad. To quell questions from the public, the Lithuanian Armed Forces have posted explanations online and in public discussions.
At a meeting organized by the opposition Social Democratic Party on March 6, Lithuania’s Defence Chief General Valdemaras Rupšys said that “According to the available data and all the information that is obtained through open and non-open intelligence sources, we can clearly see that there is no direct threat of war to our country in the near future.” Rupšys stressed that this is an assessment of the current situation, which does not mean that there will be no threat of war in the future.
“We stress that we are always assessing and looking from the perspective of today. I’m saying this so that people would be calmer today, but it would not be possible to say that there will never be war. There can be war and there is a chance of war, but in the longer term,” he explained.
A few days ago, the Lithuanian Armed Forces announced on Facebook that there are no prerequisites for an attack against the country, but it is necessary to prepare for it.
According to Rupšys, the Armed Forces had made this announcement because it was constantly receiving questions from the population about the threat of war. The Lithuanian Armed Forces said that they have a full intelligence picture of what is currently happening on Lithuania’s borders and reassured that the situation has not changed since 2022.
“We see the need to write this because letters with questions from citizens have been arriving in our mailbox one after the other, family members and friends have been asking soldiers for some time now, and there have been cases where a uniformed soldier has been asked in a store or a petrol station: “When will there be a war and what should I do?”, the Armed Forces wrote on Facebook.
According to the Armed Forces, two criteria must be fulfilled for an attack on Lithuania to take place: a concentration of forces on the border and a known or perceived intention on the part of the enemy to use them. “Today, there is no military equipment concentrated on Lithuania’s borders with hostile states, and therefore the second criterion – the intention to use it – is also not fulfilled, so there will be no war either today or tomorrow,” the FB post explained.
“How long would it take to concentrate military equipment? Let’s recall the chronology of Ukraine for reference: the invasion began in February 2022, the concentration of military equipment was mentioned as early as spring 2021, in September, the equipment was moved to the Ukrainian borders under the guise of exercises, and in November, the entire Western world clearly identified the threat of an attack with satellite images of Russian military equipment mobilized on the Ukrainian border.”
The Armed Forces also stated that the long-term insights on whether Russia is preparing for war with NATO “are not within its competence”, but the “full intelligence picture of what is actually happening at the borders of Lithuanian and beyond” shows that “the situation has not changed since 2022”.
However, the Armed Forces stressed that it is necessary to prepare for war, as it is the duty of the military and every citizen, as well as “the straightest way to peace”.
“And let’s support Ukraine – today, the war is taking place there,” it said.
