In 2024 the world will witness various important geopolitical events and processes, and some of them will affect the security and defence of the Baltic region and Lithuania itself. Most of them will be long-term, but preparation should begin now, writes Ignas Ramanauskas for bernardinai.lt.
The Baltic News Service asked three foreign experts about the challenges facing Lithuania in the coming year. General (Ret.) Ben Hodges, former Commanding General of US Army Europe, now serving as NATO Senior Mentor for Logistics says that the biggest geopolitical challenge for Lithuania is preparing for possible conflict with Russia in the next five years if the West does not help Ukraine defend against Russia today. The Kremilin has been clear that, if victorious, its ambitions extend well beyond Ukrainian borders. This means that Lithuania, now a trusted NATO member allocating 2 percent of its GNP for defence, should not only continue investing in defence but also instill a culture of preparation in its armed forces, territorial defense mechanisms and its population. The Lithuanian people, institutions and infrastructure need increased resilience, and the country must work closely with its neighbours to coordinate defence planning and public spending.
Edward Lucas, a British writer and consultant specializing in European and transatlantic security, is a senior consultant with the Centre for European Policy Analysis who speaks Lithuanian and was awarded an honorary doctorate from Vytautas Magnus University. In his view, Ukraine is problematic not only as to the possible results of the war, but also as to what it demonstrates regarding the strength of NATO, the European Union, the Atlantic Council and the entire West. “If we fail in Ukraine, we will fail everywhere. If we win, everyone will be somewhat safer.”
According to political scientist Kai-Olaf Lang, analyst at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, the military situation in Ukraine may beome increasingly complex, while the capacity for most Western countries to assist Ukraine with everything it needs is limited. Lithuania and like-minded nations must increase their efforts to convince their Western partners that continuing and even increasing support for Ukraine is essential. Lithuania and other closely allied nations may have to prepare for a new narrative, which must prevent wavering partners EU and NATO from allowing any concessions to Russia.
Lithuanian may have to be ready for a scenario in which the US begins to withdraw from Europe and the war in Ukraine. With presidential elections and the need to pay more attention to other regions such as the Near East, India and the Pacific, the US may not fully retreat, but will be distracted by internal affairs and other areas of conflict in the world.
Changes in the White House may blur the lines of transatlantic relations and USA’s commitment to NATO. Therefore Lithuania and its allies will need to maintain US presence in Europe, especially in the context of the war in Ukraine and NATO’s eastern flank. The NATO Summit in Washington will be a forum for raising the issue and showing that NATO has European members that have strengthened their defenses. Lithuania will be tasked with deepening bilateral ties both with the US and especially with Germany for stronger transatlantic and European defence capability.
If the US government should change after the elections, competing and anti-Western powers may test the new administration or the West’s competence. This may begin toward the end of 2024, but most likely in early 2025. The rise of various world geopolitical conflicts may allow Russia or Belarus to attempt to destabilize Lithuania and other Eastern European countries or the Baltic region, testing NATO’s cohesion.
However, the newly elected Polish government’s efforts to improve Polish-German cooperation in the area of defence opens new possibilities for increased security and resilience in the Baltic region. Lithuanian cooperation with Germany and Poland will also help ensure security in the eastern flank. Germany’s commitment to deploy a brigade is a clear sign that security in that region is a priority.
