The threat of invasion and Lithuania’s role
Historian, American journalist and Pulitzer prize winning author (for Gulag: A History ) Anne Applebaum says we should have started preparing Ukraine for invasion in 2015. In an interview with LRT, Applebaum argues that Western leaders keep misreading Russia, although there are enough voices in Europe’s big nations raising the right amount of alarm. In her view Putin is prepared for a war and the West has responded well with Americans drawing attention to the situation, more weapons going to Ukraine, and the threat of sanctions.
Applebaum believes that Putin has always wanted to control Ukraine, does not recognize Ukrainian statehood, the reality of Ukrainian national identity or Ukrainian independence. For him it’s been a question of time, when could he do it. There have been multiple Russian efforts to take over Ukraine in other ways, through the use of pro-Russian politicians, through disinformation, through economic pressure and so on. He may have now decided that this is a moment when the West was divided, and the United States wasn’t paying attention. He may have been inspired by the American withdrawal from Afghanistan to think that Americans were no longer interested in fighting in the world. Even if he doesn’t choose to invade this week, or in a few weeks, this is still a part of Russian strategy. The possibility that this could happen at another time is something we need to always take into account.
Hopefully Western countries as well as Ukraine’s neighbours have drawn lessons from this and understand that we need to really raise the level of deterrence in the Baltic states and Ukraine, in Central Europe but even in Western Europe. “And we will fight back. I think we all need to focus on that over the next months and years, no matter what happens in Ukraine this month.”
The general assumption is that if you look at the map, Russia should be integrated with Europe, it should trade with Europe. It has a lot in common with Europe, and historically Russia has been involved with Europe, many Russians consider themselves to be Europeans. And yet they keep coming up against this unstoppable barrier and the barrier is that Putin sees Europe, the European Union, European institutions and above all European democracy and the language of European democracy as a personal threat to himself.
He thinks we’re an enemy. And that’s very hard for Western leaders to understand. What they don’t understand is the degree to which Putin is afraid of the ideas of democracy. He’s afraid of democracy activism in Russia. He’s afraid of the kind of democratic revolution that we saw in Ukraine in 2014 and all over the former Soviet world in 1991 and early 1990s. And he’s afraid of that taking place at home. That’s why he’s hostile to us, that’s why he resists us. That’s why he seeks to undermine Western democracy itself.
Some Western leaders are beginning to understand that. There has been a change in the last six months in the US, in the UK, maybe less so in Germany. What we’re really dealing with is autocrats who work together now in many ways, support one another, help one another overcome Western sanctions. The corrupt state companies of one autocracy can invest in the corrupt state companies of another autocracy. They share surveillance equipment, they share technology, they share tactics, they watch how the leadership in one country puts down democratic activists, how they use repression – and that’s copied in other countries.
And so they are beginning to see themselves as facing this common threat. And the threat is democracy activism, the threat is the kind of student movements we saw in Hong Kong, the demonstrations we saw in Belarus, the street demonstrations we’ve had in Venezuela and Cuba, and they all see these things as having a common source.
Of course, in a sense they’re right, people all over the world are always frustrated by injustice and unfairness by leaders who are not accountable to their people, by systems of corruption and kleptocracy. And there will always be people who want to fight against that in different ways, and using sometimes different language in different traditions. But it’s not that everybody’s American or West European, but the awareness of injustice has always inspired activism and protest. And the leaders of these countries know it, they look to push back now against the kind of activism in those kinds of movements, wherever they are.
Russia now treats Belarus as more than just a friendly neighbour. It’s not formally annexed, but it seems to be almost part of the Russian territory. This should be talked about in NATO councils, and in Europe. Other European countries need to be aware that this dangerous.
I do think that Putin was very shocked by the level of protests in Belarus and by how well organized they were, how articulate the leaders were, we hadn’t had a movement quite like that in Belarus ever before. And I think that he fears that, just as in Ukraine, it could be an inspiration for Russians.
Putin is interested in doing whatever he can to put it down and to make sure that he has military and police power in place in Belarus. “While I don’t think it’s a direct threat to Lithuania right now, you are right to find it a concern, you’re right to speak up about it everywhere that you can.”
It’s hard to know what Putin really thinks is happening in Ukraine. The implication is that Ukraine is not the same, it has an army that’s been fighting in the Donbass region for the last eight years. It has a very different sense of national identity, it’s much more cohesive. And that includes Russian speakers who now feel themselves to be Ukrainians and don’t want to be invaded by Russia. That change maybe is one of the reasons why Putin wants to invade, because 10 years from now, there won’t be any sympathy for Russia in Ukraine. And there will be fewer Russian speakers than there are now, that’s the direction that Ukraine is going.
But it is unknown whether he understands that Ukrainians will resist, whether he’s taken that into account, whether he has understood how asymmetrical warfare could undermine any kind of Russian occupation of Ukraine or make an invasion more difficult than he expects.
The Obama administration didn’t take it seriously enough, the Trump administration was not interested in defending Ukraine. And although there has been military aid going into Ukraine, but it’s not nearly the scale that was needed.
The Lithuanian government is playing a very important role in speaking out, so is the Estonian government and individuals in Germany and in France and in Britain. There are people in most European countries who are saying positive things. For Germany, this is very difficult, because of its dependence on gas from Russia. But Germany is changing.
So Europe is not as divided. We don’t have the equivalent of the Polish government of 2014, but we have people who are beginning to understand the situation. And in almost every European country, at some level, there are people whose voices are being heard who speak about the importance of this situation.
Lithuania’s role has been really important. “You may not want to be vocal on every issue. But it’s very important that you’re vocal about Russia. It’s very important also that you seek to be vocal together with others, because you’re small. Work with Poland, work with Romania, work with Germany, work with Britain. You have British soldiers in Lithuania, there’s actually a lot of sympathy for the Baltic states in Britain. Make sure you have friends everywhere. Think of yourselves as worthy alliance partners, make sure that your voice is heard, even in the media in, for example, the UK, or Germany, or France. That’s how you can make a big difference.
Because the survival of Lithuania does depend on Western Europe, on NATO and on Western Europe and the United States feels that this alliance is important and that it has to be defended – your role should be to continually remind people of this fact. And I think you’ve been doing quite well in the last couple of years.”
Everything depends on what we do today, if we want to affect what happens tomorrow.
And all countries, even small countries like Lithuania, are in a position to make a difference by speaking, by arguing, by bringing people together, by talking to allies. This is its chance of making a change.
Adapted from Anne Applebaum’s interview with Aleksandra Ketlerienė of LRT.lt.
