In early January of this year, Prof. Juozas Augutis, Dean of Vytautas Magnus University, provided the news website alkas.lt with a wealth of information on demographics in Lithuania. Although various crises have reduced the number of jobs in Lithuania over the past year, there is still a shortage of workers. The country cannot fill these positions with its own human resources, therefore the job market is seeing an increasing number of official and unofficial third-country (non-EU) workers. For 2023 the quota for incoming experts has been confirmed at 10,000, and there are already over 100,000 immigrants working in the country.
The population of Lithuania was at its highest in 1991, with 3.7 million residents. In 2022 that number fell to 2.8 million. This 24.3% decrease was primarily due to the large number of emigrants. For a few years the loss was compensated by the birth rate remaining higher than the mortality rate, however by 2021 the balance was -25,000. The COVID-19 pandemic contributed to this deficit, however, even without it the mortality rate is higher than the birth rate by about 20,000. Even with the emigration rate falling below annual immigration since 2019, the general population is still decreasing due to the huge difference between birth and mortality rates. Here is a chart showing population by age.
Because of Russia’s war on Ukraine, about 70,000 Ukrainians came to Lithuania last year. But this was simply an after-effect of the war. If there are only 25,000 births per year in Lithuania, the population will drop by another million in less than 40 years. This is one of the most negative statistics in the European Union, with only the Bulgarian population decreasing more rapidly. Although these are theoretical calculations, and it is to be hoped that these indicators can be improved, the tendency toward decline is not likely to change quickly.
There are many small countries in the world that enjoy stability and a good standard of living, however the problem is that a rapid decline undermines the structure of a population. In Lithuania, there are twice as many people approaching retirement as there are young people. With an aging population, the number of people leaving the work force increases, and more of the country’s budget will be directed toward pension payments. This will be true for at least 30 more years, and during that time many spheres of life will be affected.
Even more troubling is that the lack of young people impedes commercial development, innovation and investment, increases the average age of employees in various institutions and increases the difficulties inherent in generational change.
Currently there are approximately 1.37 million workers employed in Lithuania. Many of their jobs require post-secondary education, and that requirement is increasing. Under normal circumstances, the expected number of graduates is from 40,000 to 45,000 students per year. Generally speaking, every year there should be at least 30 new workers coming into existing institutions (teachers, engineers, physicians, public servants, construction workers, etc.) in order for such institutions to remain stable. Therefore the toatl number of new workers should be about 41,000. Unfortunately, the current number is only 25,000 Lithuanians.
In order to mitigate this situation, the first step would be to determine which types of work cannot be completed by immigrants from other countries, for example – teaching, government work, and professions requiring high qualifications. Next incentive programs should be introduced, for example, scholarships and grants for students. Even so, this would not be sufficient to fill necessary positions without employing immigrants.
The majority of immigrants applying for admission to Lithuania are from Iraq, Syria and other countries which they are fleeing to seek stability in Europe. However their qualifications are not sufficient to maintain positions in a work force. Workers must be selected for immigration to Lithuania for particular jobs according to set quotas. For 2023 the quota for third-country citizens is 35, 950.
The largest number of workers come from Ukraine, Belarus and a few other countries. Very few come from the EU, except for returning Lithuanians. The newcomers are mostly employed in service, transport, industry, construction and other such sectors.
The most effective solution to the problem lies with institutions of higher learning. In the US, Great Britain, France, and now Poland, Czechia and other countries, reduced tuition rates and lenient credit programs (actually loans, to be repaid once sufficiently high salaries are being earned). High-scoring students from other countries are also accepted to their universities.
Not very long ago there were over 200,000 students at Lithuanian post-secondary institutions. Currently that number is 100,000, which means that the institutions are not working at full capacity, and could accept up to 10,000 foreign students without incurring major costs. The reason this is not being done today is that although Lithuania is attractive to third-country youth, the cost of living and education is too expensive for them.
Attracting highly motivated students might cost about 4000 euros per student per year, which may seem high, especially once such a program is in full swing, but financing could be provided by both government and businesses looking for future candidates. Currently there is more government funding available for students at universities than is being applied for, in engineering, computer technology, agriculture, education and other programs, where there is a constant shortage of graduates. Most popular are management, psychology and law.
